Madagascar’s population faces a compounding threat. Floods, landslides, and cyclones are growing more severe, and the country’s capacity to protect its citizens, infrastructure, and essential services depends increasingly on knowing, in advance, exactly what those hazards will cost.
That knowledge is now being built systematically. The Global Risk Modelling Alliance, a coalition of public and private sector organizations, has begun a structured analysis of climate change impacts across the island. AXA Climate, a member of the alliance, completed the first phase of risk mapping last year and has since launched a second, more targeted phase. The initial assessment identified eight major climate hazards and produced a stark projection: flooding alone could cost Madagascar 311 million dollars by 2050.
For Herman Julot, director of strategic planning at Madagascar’s emergency prevention and management cell (CPGU), the value of that data is immediate and practical. “The knowledge of risks allows us to identify activities we need to implement,” he said. “If we know the potential impact caused by hazards before they strike, we can prepare for those impacts and plan our activities. We can estimate budgets allocated for activities based on the possible scale of the hazards.” Whether communities receive timely assistance, whether vulnerable infrastructure gets reinforced before the next cyclone season, whether relief resources go where they are most needed: all of this flows from having reliable numbers before disaster strikes.
The first phase delivered concrete tools. More than 400 maps were produced and made freely accessible. Roughly one hundred technical experts across Madagascar’s agriculture and public works ministries, along with international partner organizations, were trained to use them. These specialists learned to overlay hazard maps showing cyclone zones and flood-risk areas with data on buildings, infrastructure, and population centers, producing a clearer picture of which zones face the greatest danger and which communities are most exposed.
Those maps then translate into financial decisions. Eliot Pernet, deputy specialist leading AXA Climate’s public sector advisory team, described the logic: “Once you know how much you need to mobilize in case of cyclone, in case of flooding, in case of drought; once you know what your main at-risk zones are, you can decide to put insurance here, a reserve fund there, a contingent credit here.” This approach, called risk stratification, allows authorities to match different financial instruments to different types and scales of risk, rather than applying a single blunt response to every disaster.
The challenge is acute. Madagascar’s government budgets are already stretched, and Julot identified two obstacles that directly affect citizens waiting for relief. “The biggest challenge is first the payment of the premium and also ensuring the speed of disbursements. Then the speed of implementing activities if there are disbursements,” he said. For people dependent on rapid reconstruction support after a flood or cyclone, delays in releasing funds can extend suffering long past the disaster itself.
The second phase of analysis aims to trace how climate hazards ripple outward through Madagascar’s broader economy. Researchers will focus particularly on flooding, the island’s most significant climate threat, and on population displacement driven by climate impacts. The work will map both direct economic losses and indirect effects, showing how a single flood event can disrupt supply chains, reduce agricultural output, and strain public services well beyond the initial disaster zone. That deeper economic modeling will give planners better tools to anticipate cascading damage across sectors and regions, not just the immediate point of impact.
The open question is whether the financial architecture can keep pace with the modeling. Better maps and projections are only as useful as the funding mechanisms and disbursement systems built around them. How quickly Madagascar can close that gap will determine whether this work protects citizens in practice, or remains a planning exercise while the next cyclone season approaches.
For more information on this initiative, see https://www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/afrique-%C3%A9conomie/20260908-%C3%A0-madagascar-mod%C3%A9liser-les-impacts-du-changement-climatique-pour-mieux-planifier.