Trump Arrives in Beijing for Summit With Xi as Trade and Taiwan Tensions Loom
President Donald Trump has touched down in the Chinese capital for a consequential meeting with Xi Jinping, marking his first visit to China since 2017. The two leaders will convene Thursday and Friday amid escalating geopolitical friction between the world’s largest economies, with discussions expected to cover trade disputes, Taiwan’s status, artificial intelligence development, and the ongoing conflict involving Iran.
The summit carries particular weight given that no sitting US president has visited China in nearly a decade. Trump departed for Beijing after weeks of unsuccessful attempts to persuade Chinese officials to pressure Iran back toward the negotiating table and to help ease military tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Before leaving, he indicated that Iran would feature prominently in his conversations with Xi, though he emphasized that trade would remain the primary focus of the visit.
The underlying dynamics of US-China competition run far deeper than headline issues, according to analysts. Salvador Santino Regilme, associate professor and programme chair of international relations at Leiden University, framed the rivalry as fundamentally about “hierarchy, legitimacy and the future architecture of global order.” Yet paradoxically, the two nations remain locked in a relationship of profound economic interdependence that neither can easily escape without inflicting substantial damage on itself.
“The United States still relies heavily on China’s manufacturing capacity and low-cost production, while China depends on access to US consumers, technology, capital markets and the wider stability of the dollar-centred global economy,” Regilme said. This mutual reliance creates what he called “the paradox of US-China rivalry: each side wants greater autonomy, yet both remain tied to a structure of mutual dependence that neither can easily dismantle without hurting itself.”
Taiwan represents perhaps the most volatile flashpoint in the bilateral relationship. China claims the self-ruled island as its own territory and has intensified military pressure through regular air and naval operations. Tensions have sharpened further under Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te, whose Democratic Progressive Party views Taiwan as already sovereign, drawing sharp criticism from Beijing. The United States officially recognizes mainland China but remains legally bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to support Taiwan’s self-defence capabilities. Washington has approved tens of billions of dollars in military sales to the island over the years, including an $11 billion package announced last year, a policy that has long infuriated Beijing.
Trump recently said he discussed Taiwan with Xi before the summit, and analysts expect Taipei to scrutinize every word the two leaders speak publicly afterward. “What matters is the precise wording,” Regilme said. “Whether Trump reaffirms support for Taiwan’s defence, whether he sounds ambiguous on arms sales, and whether he gives Xi any rhetorical opening to claim that Washington is restraining Taipei.” Beijing is likely to push for limits on US arms sales and stronger political restrictions on Taiwan, while discouraging any movement toward formal independence. Taipei, meanwhile, fears becoming a bargaining chip in a broader geopolitical arrangement between Washington and Beijing.
Technology and supply chain competition represents another critical battleground. Washington has tightened restrictions on advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment destined for China, citing national security concerns about Beijing’s military and artificial intelligence capabilities. China controls roughly 90 percent of global rare earth refining, materials essential for semiconductors, electric vehicles, military equipment and electronics. Beijing has responded by tightening export controls on several critical minerals, disrupting portions of the American automotive and aerospace sectors. Washington wants China to resume shipments of rare earths and critical minerals, while Beijing is expected to press for fewer US technology restrictions.
The Iran conflict and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz have become increasingly urgent. Washington hopes to enlist Beijing’s influence over Tehran, particularly because China remains the largest buyer of Iranian oil, purchasing more than 80 percent of Iran’s shipped crude exports. US officials have urged China to support efforts to reopen and secure the strait, a vital conduit for global energy supplies. About half of China’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East, and disruptions in the Gulf have left commercial shipping vulnerable to attacks and delays.
Dan Grazier, a senior fellow and director of the National Security Reform programme at the Stimson Center, said he had “no doubt that Trump is going to at least try to enlist Xi Jinping to assert some pressure for the Iranians to come back to the table and agree to a settlement.” Experts suggest Iran may be one of the few areas where US and Chinese interests genuinely overlap, as both countries benefit from stable energy flows through the Gulf.
Gregory Poling, director and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that while both sides would prefer the strait opened, Beijing is unlikely to align itself too closely with Washington’s approach toward Tehran. “It is not China being humiliated in the strait,” Poling said. “It’s the US.” The diplomatic and strategic pressure created by the disruption is falling far more heavily on Washington than on Beijing.
Trade tensions have festered for years, intensifying when Trump imposed new tariffs on Chinese goods. China responded in kind, with some goods climbing above 100 percent at the height of the dispute. The two countries later agreed to a temporary truce reached during talks in South Korea, under which China committed to buying more US agricultural products including soya beans, while Washington rolled back some tariffs. Trump is expected to focus heavily on trade at the summit, seeking visible economic wins ahead of November’s midterm elections. Washington has pushed for China to increase purchases of American goods, including Boeing aircraft, beef and soya beans, while also seeking closer investment and trade cooperation.
Trump has also indicated he plans to raise the case of Jimmy Lai, the jailed Hong Kong media tycoon and pro-democracy figure sentenced earlier this year under Beijing’s national security law.
For Trump, a successful outcome would likely need to be visible and politically saleable at home. That could include Chinese purchases of US goods, movement on tariffs, cooperation on Iran, or progress on rare earth exports. “Trump’s foreign policy style places enormous value on the public performance of dealmaking, so the optics of success may matter almost as much as the substance,” Regilme said.
For Xi, success would mean preserving stability without appearing to capitulate to Washington, while securing greater economic predictability and recognition of China as a global power. Regilme cautioned that a comprehensive trade deal seems unlikely because the structural sources of rivalry remain unresolved. A limited agreement is more probable, potentially involving tariff pauses, purchase commitments, rare earth arrangements or a framework for future negotiations. “Such an agreement would manage the rivalry temporarily, while leaving untouched the deeper problem: the two economies remain mutually dependent, but their governments increasingly treat that dependency as a strategic danger,” he added.